Win over Huskies strengthens Oregon's tournament hopes, crucial in team's 'march to March'

EUGENE, Ore. — After taking down the Washington Huskies in a thrilling 68-67 nail-biter on Wednesday night, Oregon is now one step closer to the goal that every college basketball team sets out with at the beginning of the season — earning a trip to the NCAA Tournament in March.

While it hasn't necessarily looked pretty all season — which head coach Kelly Graves will be the first to tell you — the Ducks (17-8, 8-6) are playing winning basketball, and with their victory over the Huskies, have now clinched a spot in the Big Ten conference tournament.

"In the end, you just count the wins," Graves said after Oregon's win over Washington.

Entering Wednesday night's contest, Oregon was seemingly in solid position to make this year's field but far from guarantee. In his latest Bracketology update for ESPN, Charlie Creme listed the Ducks as the No. 10 seed in Region 2 Birmingham, marking them as one of the final four teams to receive byes. At The Athletic, Mark Schindler named Oregon as one of six Big Ten teams "projected in" to the tournament to go with the conference's three "locks" of No. 1 UCLA, No. 6 USC, and No. 9 Ohio State.

Where things get tricky for the Ducks is the bloated size of an 18-team Big Ten that Creme currently projects to get the most bids of any conference with 12, two more than the SEC. In addition to the nine Big Ten teams that Schindler lists as "locks" or "projected in," four more teams — Nebraska, Minnesota, Indiana, and Washington — are currently "on the bubble." 

Following the toughest stretch of their schedule that saw Oregon come away with a 1-3 record, even more pressure was placed on the season's final five games. 

"We've talked about the home stretch, our march to March," Graves said. "We talked about how we have five games left and every one of them's important, is a chance for us to get some momentum, to position ourselves for a good seed in the Big Ten Tournament and hopefully a good seed in the NCAA Tournament if we're fortunate enough to get there."

Oregon came away with the win against Washington on Wednesday night but will face the Huskies again in Seattle to close the season. The Ducks' final home game comes against Rutgers who has just two conference wins this season, but will be preceded by an all-important road trip that will see them visit two other bubble teams in Minnesota and Nebraska.

Oregon's biggest strength this season has been its ability to win the games that it is supposed to win, which can be seen in the Ducks' 14-3 record at home and 15-1 record in non-Quad 1 games, with that only loss coming to a South Dakota State team. Where the Ducks have fallen though is in those Quad 1 games — against top 25 opponents at home, top 35 opponents on a neutral site, and top 40 opponents on the road — where they have won just two of nine games.

During their final four games, the Ducks will have the opportunity to add to their resume. Minnesota currently comes in as the No. 31 team in the NCAA's NET rankings while Nebraska checks in as the No. 40 team in the country. With both of these games taking place on the road — Minnesota first on Sunday followed by Nebraska on Wednesday — it will make them Quad 1 games for Oregon and ones that could mean the difference when the committee is comparing resumes on Selection Sunday. 

"I think every game matters so much, especially because you play each opponent once," guard Elisa Mevius said. "The games are so close, we talked about each possession matters."

"Down the stretch, you want to be playing your best basketball," Graves said.

Minnesota carries an 0-4 record against Quad 1 opponents this season while Nebraska is just 2-6. Both teams will play both Oregon and Washington before the season is over with Minnesota's remaining ranked opponents including Ohio State and Michigan State while Nebraska will only face Maryland.

The win over the Huskies was a big step towards eliminating Oregon's top conference rival from postseason contention, but the Ducks will likely need to come away with a win against at least one of Minnesota or Nebraska if they want to guarantee their spot in the Big Dance.

"It's the home stretch, so this is where we've really got to double down," guard Deja Kelly said on Wednesday. "We're really starting to peak a little bit and we have to. We're gonna keep moving forward, we're gonna take it one game at a time, we've got a lot more games to play."