Taking stock of Oregon softball's Big Ten and postseason outlook

EUGENE, Ore. — After taking down the UCLA Bruins in a thrilling series over the weekend, the Oregon Ducks once again find themselves as a top five team in the country, with an inside track to the Big Ten's regular season title no less. The Ducks took a close first game from the Bruins before being blown out in the second to set up the most important game on the Big Ten calendar, which Oregon dominated with an emphatic 9-0 win.

The series win was No. 5 Oregon's first over UCLA under head coach Melyssa Lombardi, and with two weeks left in the regular season, has the Ducks in prime position to earn the top seed heading into the Big Ten Softball Tournament. Oregon (41-5, 14-2) holds a one-game lead at the top of the conference standings, and crucially, a key tiebreaker over the Bruins (42-7, 13-3) after taking the head-to-head. This means the Ducks' destiny will lie in their own hands across the season's final two weekends, making this a great time to look ahead to the postseason to figure out what could be heading their way.

Oregon has two more series remaining on its conference schedule, a visit this weekend to Indiana (that will be followed by a non-conference one-off against Notre Dame) and a home series against Michigan State during the final weekend of the regular season. Both series present very winnable matchups for the Ducks, with the Hoosiers tied for 10th in the Big Ten and the Spartans checking in at 14th.

Indiana (29-13, 8-8) began the season with a strong start to non-conference play, finishing with a 21-5 record, but has since played exactly .500 ball against conference opponents. The Hoosiers hold series wins over Penn State and Maryland in Big Ten play, but have just a 2-7 record in games against teams currently ranked inside the top 25 of ESPN.com/USA Softball's latest poll.

Michigan State (14-25, 4-12) currently finds itself in the midst of its seventh consecutive losing season and holds a record of just 3-7 across its last 10 games. The Spartans are yet to win a series in conference play and will host Iowa for their final home series before heading to Eugene the following weekend.

As things currently stand, the Ducks would receive the top seed in the Big Ten tournament, which would give them a bye in the first round (along with the other top four finishers in conference play). This would set them up to play the winner of the eighth and ninth place finishers, which are currently Michigan (whom Oregon swept earlier this month) and Wisconsin. The Ducks would then face the No. 4 Seed (currently Northwestern) or the winner of the No. 5 versus No. 12 matchup before they would take on most likely No. 2 UCLA or No. 3 Nebraska in the championship game.

While a conference tournament title would be a nice bonus, Oregon's spectacular record and likely Big Ten regular season championship will be more than enough to land the Ducks in the NCAA Tournament for the fifth straight year under Lombardi. The question won't be whether or not Oregon will be participating in the tournament, but rather whether they will be among the 16 teams selected to host the opening round. 

A season ago, the Big Ten finished last among power conferences (SEC, ACC, and Big 12) with just four teams in the tournament field. While this season's additions of Oregon and UCLA have strengthened the depth of the conference, it is still viewed as weaker than its Power Four competition. The Big Ten currently has four teams ranked inside the top 25, compared to 12 from the SEC, five from the ACC, and four from the Big 12.

Last season's Big Ten regular season champ, Northwestern, finished the season ranked just 23rd in the country and was sent to face top-seeded Texas in the opening round. Meanwhile, Michigan, the conference's tournament champ, who finished the regular season unranked, was sent to face No. 5 Oklahoma State. The Ducks will enter the tournament selection process with a much stronger resume than either of these two teams, but the relative weakness of the Big Ten will certainly be taken into consideration.

Duke finished last season ranked fifth heading into the tournament selection process — the same place Oregon currently finds itself — after capturing both the ACC's regular season and tournament titles. The Blue Devils were rewarded with hosting duties and the No. 10 seed in the NCAA Tournament, a spot the Ducks could find themselves in come season's end.

When it comes time to compare resumes in order to seed the 64-team field, there's no doubt that the relative weakness of a Big Ten schedule (especially one that doesn't contain either No. 22 Nebraska or No. 24 Ohio State) will be held against Oregon. At the same time, wins over No. 1 Tennessee and No. 7 Florida State (twice) will play strongly in the Ducks' favor.

It's these conference doubts that have held Oregon back this season in the national conversation, with the Ducks coming in at just 15th in the NCAA's softball RPI thanks to a strength of schedule that WarrenNolan.com ranks 62nd in the nation.

In the most recently updated bracket projections at collegesportsmadness.com, the Ducks are slotted in as the No. 7 seed, hosting Mississippi State, Cal State Fullerton, and Central Michigan in the Eugene Regional.

Ultimately, this is right around where the Ducks will likely end up. One of the best records in the nation, five wins over top 10 teams, and potential regular-season and tournament conference titles should be more than enough to make Oregon one of the 16 teams selected to host the tournament's opening round. The question will then be whether or not the Ducks would host a Super Regional, as one of the top eight remaining teams following the first round. Depending on how tournament matchups play out, a top-eight seed would essentially guarantee the Ducks to host both the Regional and Super Regional rounds. Come selection time, there's a good chance that Oregon finds itself right on this bubble.

Before they reach the postseason, though, the Ducks still need to take care of business across the final two weekends of the regular season. Oregon's next chance to add to its resume will come on the road at Indiana this weekend, when the Ducks will visit the Hoosiers for a three-game set. The series will kick off at 3 PM on Friday, followed by 10 AM games on Saturday and Sunday, before Oregon will face Notre Dame for a one-off at 2 PM next Monday.